This seems somewhat similar to the Hollywood model. Directors, actors, and technical professionals drift freely between studios, with projects arranged by producers. It's also heavily unionized.
Could be—though because of gaming's longer dev cycles it's never taken in AAA. On the indie side Strange Scaffold / Xalavier Nelson Jr. does operate this way tho
It will be interesting to see how much point 3 ultimately allows for a sustainable "indie industry" rather than a couple of occasional outlier breakouts, with everybody else perhaps not being able to even break even. Making games eventually (perhaps with genAI getting better at replacing existing asset-generating disciplines) goes from a career, to something more akin to one's chances of becoming the next Taylor Swift, with most not being able to even cover their gas bill by playing gigs at local dive bars. Only (maybe "only" is the wrong word here, maybe that's actually already more than anybody ever expected) four solo devs generated 100M+ USD in sales this last decade, out of how many games released during that time?
My guess: Indie-sized games are unlikely to ever professionalize/stabilize almost by definition. Hits will always follow a power law distribution, with 85–90%+ failing outright
It's possible that a new middle class emerges, though. Media is going through a similar transition and there are some parallels (including on Substack) that I'm planning on writing about
My first thoughts were that there are some minorities that are a priori "deprofessionalized" by industry in the absence of unions or regulation or any oversight. Non neurotypicals ("Autistics") in particular (I'm somewhere in that spectrum) since they are 70% long term unemployed. Not for lack of skill sets, but because of workplaces that are hostile to them. The long list of AAA studios that have been successfully sued for discriminatory practices (some which have even led to suicides) just reinforces this to a status beyond conjecture.
For those people (again like myself) if we are fanatical enough about this work we have to adapt to being digital nomads. We get in, do our work, and get out before workplace drama and a general lack of professionalism in the environments you describe as "professional" doom our jobs.
This lack of protections both in terms of environment and work duration means a lot of the top talent can't work in "professional" environments. Because those environments are too unprofessional. This in turn has a negative effect on the quality of product these studios can create. Hence the lack of successful Games as a Service across the board for the last 5+ years. GaaS is hard and the people who can reliably make hits just don't exist in that space anymore.
Great article! I agree with every word. In addition, I believe we need new distribution channels. Console subscriptions, Steam, Epic and Itchio are not enough. I NEED more and sophisticated platforms!
This is a really insightful, and well informed look at what’s happening to the industry. Is plebeians just look at all the chaos and worry that the industry is dying but as you say there’s still billions flowing through the industry.
Also are you drafting your articles in google docs?
This seems somewhat similar to the Hollywood model. Directors, actors, and technical professionals drift freely between studios, with projects arranged by producers. It's also heavily unionized.
Could be—though because of gaming's longer dev cycles it's never taken in AAA. On the indie side Strange Scaffold / Xalavier Nelson Jr. does operate this way tho
It will be interesting to see how much point 3 ultimately allows for a sustainable "indie industry" rather than a couple of occasional outlier breakouts, with everybody else perhaps not being able to even break even. Making games eventually (perhaps with genAI getting better at replacing existing asset-generating disciplines) goes from a career, to something more akin to one's chances of becoming the next Taylor Swift, with most not being able to even cover their gas bill by playing gigs at local dive bars. Only (maybe "only" is the wrong word here, maybe that's actually already more than anybody ever expected) four solo devs generated 100M+ USD in sales this last decade, out of how many games released during that time?
My guess: Indie-sized games are unlikely to ever professionalize/stabilize almost by definition. Hits will always follow a power law distribution, with 85–90%+ failing outright
It's possible that a new middle class emerges, though. Media is going through a similar transition and there are some parallels (including on Substack) that I'm planning on writing about
My first thoughts were that there are some minorities that are a priori "deprofessionalized" by industry in the absence of unions or regulation or any oversight. Non neurotypicals ("Autistics") in particular (I'm somewhere in that spectrum) since they are 70% long term unemployed. Not for lack of skill sets, but because of workplaces that are hostile to them. The long list of AAA studios that have been successfully sued for discriminatory practices (some which have even led to suicides) just reinforces this to a status beyond conjecture.
For those people (again like myself) if we are fanatical enough about this work we have to adapt to being digital nomads. We get in, do our work, and get out before workplace drama and a general lack of professionalism in the environments you describe as "professional" doom our jobs.
This lack of protections both in terms of environment and work duration means a lot of the top talent can't work in "professional" environments. Because those environments are too unprofessional. This in turn has a negative effect on the quality of product these studios can create. Hence the lack of successful Games as a Service across the board for the last 5+ years. GaaS is hard and the people who can reliably make hits just don't exist in that space anymore.
Really thoughtful piece, the diagnosis of deprofessionalization hits hard, especially how old structures can’t support stable careers anymore.
One idea this sparked for me: Maybe part of what’s breaking isn’t just professionalism; it’s our collective inability to let games die.
Studios, shareholders, even players resist endings because they feel like failure. But in creative cultures, endings are what make space for the new.
Games must die, so others can live. Which also means, old structures must die, so new ones can live.
Love this idea. You should go down this rabbit hole further and write something about it!
Great article! I agree with every word. In addition, I believe we need new distribution channels. Console subscriptions, Steam, Epic and Itchio are not enough. I NEED more and sophisticated platforms!
Would love to hear more on this. On a pre-rational level I agree but struggle to imagine what it could look like
This is a really insightful, and well informed look at what’s happening to the industry. Is plebeians just look at all the chaos and worry that the industry is dying but as you say there’s still billions flowing through the industry.
Also are you drafting your articles in google docs?
I usually write directly in the Substack editor but I cranked this one out on a plane with spotty internet!